Contrasting views on future of the GOP

An article from Politico.com today describes differing views within the Republican Party as to what lessons should be learned from Election Day.

Some, like Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, believe the party was largely a victim of an inhospitable climate for Republicans:

“I have looked down at the grave of the Republican Party and this ain’t it,” assured Mississippi Gov. and 90s-era RNC chairman Haley Barbour, “I’ve seen it a lot worse."

Barbour, speaking on a panel session at the Republican Governor’s Association meeting in Miami devoted to sifting through this year’s electoral destruction, recalled serving as executive director of his state party in the aftermath of President Nixon's resignation, when Democrats elected 49 “Watergate Babies” to the House in 1974.

Others, like Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, believe this is a watershed moment for the party:

“We cannot be a majority governing party when we essentially cannot compete in the northeast; we are losing our ability to compete in the Great Lakes states, we cannot compete on the west coast,” Pawlenty argued, also citing similar problems in the mid-Atlantic and interior west. “Similarly, we cannot compete and prevail as a majority governing party when we have a significant deficit as we do with woman, where we have a large deficit with Hispanics, where we have a large deficit with African-American voters, where we have a large deficit with people of modest incomes.”

Where do you stand?

You can read the full story at: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15676.html

Who would take the Lt. Gov's spot if Gov. Granholm left?

The answer, believe it or not, may be "no one."

The Michigan Constitution does not specify how the office of Lt. Governor is filled if there is a vacancy. Obviously, this situation could arise if Gov. Granholm accepts a position in the Obama Administration. A report from the Citizens Research Council of Michigan explains:

Whereas the Michigan Constitution provides a method for filling vacancies in the other statewide elected executive offices (e.g., governor, secretary of state, and attorney general), it is silent with respect to a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. Article V, Section 21 provides that vacancies in the offices of secretary of state and attorney general are to be filled by gubernatorial appointment, suggesting that the framers of the 1963 Constitution intended vacancies in the office of lieutenant governor to go unfilled.

You can read the full CRC report at: http://www.crcmich.org/PUBLICAT/2000s/2008/note200804.html

Rove: History favors Republicans in 2010

Karl Rove wrote an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today analyzing the results from Election Day and looking ahead to 2010. Among his observations:

- Republicans lost substantial support amongst Hispanic voters compared to 2004

- 4.1 million fewer Republicans voted this year than did in 2004

- 2.7 million fewer veterans voted

However, he has a positive outlook on 2010:

History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president's first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.

Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president's first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.

Read the full column at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122653996148523063.html

What's next for the GOP?

I found this article from the former Director of the Office of Strategic Initiatives for President Bush particularly insightful. Amongst his suggestions:

Republicans should maintain a sense of historical perspective. In 1992, the GOP was said to be in terrible trouble. A young, 46-year-old governor from Arkansas won the presidency. He brought with him powerful majorities in both the House (258 Democratic seats v. 176 Republican seats) and the Senate (56 Democratic seats v. 44 Republican seats). There were predictions that conservatism was dead and that a generational shift in political power had taken place.

Yet just 24 months later, a political earthquake hit, Republicans took control of the House for the first time in a half-century, and President Clinton found it necessary to assert his "relevance" at a press conference.

Full article at: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/what-s-next-for-the-gop-13444

The challenge before us in Michigan

Michigan Republicans have lost ground in more ways than one. In addition to their setbacks in the election, an exit poll showed fewer of the state's voters identifying with the GOP than at any time since Bill Clinton won re-election a dozen years ago.

In a statewide survey for The Associated Press and television networks, 41 percent of voters described themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents or members of other parties. Four years ago, when John Kerry narrowly took Michigan, the split was 39 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 27 percent independent.

The 12-point spread between Democrats and Republicans is the widest in nearly two decades, eclipsing that of 1996, when Clinton headed the ticket. That year, 41 percent said they were Democrats and 32 percent Republicans.

Full story at: http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20081110/NEWS01/811100333/1001/NEWS

Michigan election analysis

In Michigan today, Republicans are waking up with quite an electoral hangover.  Election Day 2008 provided historic victories for Democratic candidates at all levels of government from President to Michigan Supreme Court--many at the expense of GOP incumbents. 
 
For Republicans, the election-night tsunami began with President-elect Obama's overwhelming victory with over 57% of the vote.  In fact, early analysis indicates Obama won 46 of 83 counties including some by almost 3-1 margins.  This large victory provided huge momentum down-ballot as Obama's coat-tails pulled several Democratic candidates along to victory.
 
In State House races, this effect was perhaps most pronounced.  Of the 13 'toss up' seats (GOP currently holds 11, Democrats 2), House Democrats padded their majority by adding 9 current GOP-held seats.  What is most troubling for Republicans is that many of these 'pickups' occurred in traditional GOP-leaning territory such as Grosse Pointe, Oakland county, northern Macomb county, and Ionia.  The House Democrats will now enjoy a 63-47 majority--their largest majority in 30 years.  This also marks the third straight election in which Democrats have made gains in the State House.
 
Of further political note is Speaker Dillon's defeat of a recall attempt on the November ballot.  The anti-tax group, Michigan Taxpayers Alliance, went through a complicated and expensive process to place a recall on the ballot to punish the Speaker for last year's tax increase votes.  The recall was soundly defeated yesterday and the Speaker was elected to another 2-year term--his last.
 
On the congressional side, the news was even better for Democrats where their candidates beat 2 Republican incumbents--Joe Knollenberg in the 9th District and Tim Wahlberg in the 7th.  Former Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters now assumes the 9th district seat and current State Senator Mark Schauer will take over in the 7th.  This now restores the Democrat majority in Michigan's congressional delegation 8-7.
 
In perhaps the biggest surprise of the night, Chief Supreme Court Justice Cliff Taylor was defeated by challenger Dianne Hathaway.  This is the first time an incumbent Justice has been defeated since 1984.  It also marks the defeat of the court's current 4-3 conservative majority.  Many business groups supported Justice Taylor fearing his defeat would open the floodgates to many anti-business court decisions.
 
Again riding the Obama wave, Democratic candidates won every statewide election for the various education boards.  These seats include Wayne State University, Michigan State University, University of Michigan, and State Board of Education.  Of the 8 education seats up for election this year, 7 were held by Democrats.  The lone GOP incumbent, Scott Romney on the MSU Bd. of Trustees, lost.
 
In other noteworthy election news, the state's two ballot proposals (approving medical marijuana and stem cell research) easily passed despite opposition by conservative groups, law enforcement, and health professionals.  Michigan now becomes the 13th state in the nation to legalize some form of marijuana use for medicinal purposes (other states include Alaska, Calif., Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington).  Further, Michigan becomes the 9th state in the union to expressly permit embryonic stem cell  research (California, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York).
 
With the 2008 election now history, all eyes now turn toward 2010 and the race for Governor.  Let the political posturing...errr....process begin.
 
Del Chenault
Director, Government Affairs
Clark Hill